An asteroid capable of destroying a city is headed towards us and may hit the Earth in seven years’ time. But don’t panic! Things aren’t as hopeless as they sound.
2024 YR4 is a newly discovered space rock that measures between 130 and 300 feet. According to National Geographic, it has a one in 53 chance of hitting the Earth somewhere on its surface on December 22, 2032.
Highlights
- Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 1 in 53 chance of hitting Earth on Dec 22, 2032.
- The asteroid could cause significant damage and casualties if it impacts a major city.
- Scientists will gather more data on the space rock's path in Dec 2028.
But will it be deadly?
2024 YR4 is an asteroid that will potentially strike the Earth on December 22, 2032
Image credits: Pixabay/Pexels (Not the actual photo)
To get the bad news out of the way first, the answer is that it will have a noticeable impact, especially if it strikes one of the world’s major cities. So, not necessarily deadly, but definitely not something to brush off.
“It will cause casualties. It will cause major damage to people, to buildings and, even at a small scale, to wildlife,” Simón Ángel, an astrophysicist and the Scientific Director of Manuel Foster Observatory in Recoleta, Chile, told Bored Panda.
It won’t be as catastrophic as the “global-scale disaster” that killed all the dinosaurs, but it would “still be sizable for the city or the place in which the asteroid would impact.”
However, while the worst case scenario certainly looks devastating, experts assure that we should continue paying attention to 2024 YR4 — but that there is no need to “worry too much.”
Image credits: ABC News
Image credits: AsteroidWatch
“This probability that this asteroid can hit Earth was calculated only with the brief period of observation that we had — 45 days,” Ángel informed. “It was a window of only 45 days.”
The next time scientists will be able to gather more significant information on it will be in December 2028, when the space rock is once again observable with our telescopes. That will provide ample opportunity to collect more data and more precisely calculate “the movement and the orbit of the asteroid.”
Scientists have deemed it capable of destroying a city, if worse comes to worst
Image credits: Wikimedia
Various networks operated by world space agencies such as NASA are constantly monitoring the skies for these sorts of potential collisions. For example, the Asteroid Terrestrial Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) is vastly used by scientists and was the particular telescope in Chile to initially discover 2024 YR4 on December 27, 2024.
“It’s a network of telescopes, fully automated, fully robotic, that are designed or optimized for detecting small objects in the sky in a brief period of time before they impact Earth,” Ángel explained.
Image credits: Wikimedia
Image credits: metaballstudios_official
How it works is simple: the machine takes multiple pictures of the sky, all in different directions and positions. If there is any detection of movement for an object, experts may flag it as an asteroid. Their trajectory may also be predicted given its movement in the sky and its brightness.
And this said trajectory is what makes 2024 YR4 so “perilous,” according to Ángel. Its size is considered relatively “average,” but the asteroid’s current path is the reason this space rock is breaking headlines.
Combine that with the fact that it’s much too big to transform into a meteorite and make its presence known as a shooting star, and scientists conclude that it could be a problem.
Machines operated by NASA and other space agencies are meticulously tracking the asteroid
Image credits: All About Space Magazine / Getty
Image credits: Netflix
However, there are other methods under consideration that have worked in the past.
The Double Asteroid Redirection Test, also known as DART, was a first-ever mission carried on by NASA where a spacecraft was launched with the purpose of swerving an asteroid off its projected path, according to Scientific American.
Safe to say, it was nothing short of “wildly successful.” Imagery from NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope from October 8, 2022, showed debris being blasted off the surface of the rock — known as Dimorphos. As a result, its trajectory was changed slightly.
For 2024 YR4, Ángel mentioned how it could be a possibility for us to alter its movement in 2028, when more data is available.
“If you alter the orbit of this object, it will not impact the Earth, but pass a safe distance away,” he said.
The Earth has encountered these sorts of warnings before
Image credits: NASA
Image credits: New York Post
For now, it appears as if we’ll have to wait for another three years until we get more answers, and while this information may create some anxiety, the world has never been safer from these kinds of threats as it is now.
With planetary defense mechanisms set in place by space agencies such as NASA, scientists are doing what they do best: working hard to make sure all eight billion of us remain as protected as we can.
Netizens jokingly poke fun at what may be the worst case scenario
