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There are lots of subtle changes in consumer behavior that show that the global or local economy is struggling. In a nutshell, if you feel forced to change your spending habits and adjust your lifestyle, you’ve probably run into financial problems. If your friends, family, neighbors, and coworkers are changing their behavior and shopping habits, too, the issues run deeper than you not getting that raise and/or promotion that you totally deserved. It’s likely systemic.
One of the best recession indicators that we’ve ever come across is the surge in hot dog sales, especially the not-so-subtly named ‘Recession Special,’ at Gray’s Papaya in Manhattan.
“We noticed a big uptick around 2008-2009, when everything was collapsing (amid the Great Financial Crisis), and we are feeling the same thing right now — to a lesser extent, obviously, but the pattern is the same,” Rachael Gray, the owner of the hot dog restaurant, told CNN in September 2025.
CNN stressed that there is growing discontent among middle-class and lower-income households in the United States, despite the official numbers about the health of the American economy.
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Of course, all weird recession indicators have to be taken with a grain of salt. But in aggregate, they indicate that (some) consumers are struggling.
According to CNN, other unorthodox signs that the economy may be struggling include things like:
- Cardboard box shipments are at a low
- More people go to the cinema, as it is an affordable escape
- Spending on outdoor activities, like camping, spikes not just in spring and summer
- Buying fewer discretionary items, like snacks
- More people turn to local pawn shops for loans that they can no longer get from serious, trustworthy financial institutions
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Furthermore, in tough times, people turn to humor, including joking about recession indicators and sharing memes about the economy.
“The more serious things get, the more we rely on humor as a way to cope with them,” explains Justin Kidd, professor of sociology at Temple University.
However, Kidd warns that the danger is that constantly meme-ing about the economy can turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. “When people joke about feeling negatively about the economy, it could cause others to feel the same way. That would mean more people pulling back from the market — inching us ever closer to an economic slump,” CNN states.
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Meanwhile, Kyla Scanlon, the author of ‘In This Economy? How Money and Markets Really Work’ and this awesome Substack (!), points out that memes are “just testing out ideas mostly.” She explained that meme-ing is akin to sending out a smoke signal to check whether everyone else is doing okay. When you get a “no” back as a response, you’re relieved because you’re not the only person who is stressed.
According to Scanlon, when people have given up, everything becomes a joke. “I think a lot of people are like, ‘Nothing matters anymore.’ And it’s just sad,” she told CNN.
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I have heard of the Hemline Index, which basically says that women's skirt/dress hemlines get longer when the economy worsens.
There's also a more informal theory that black people tend to shy away from ethnic hairstyles as the economy gets worse.
We love this topic, and we’d like to hear your insights, too, Pandas! Share your thoughts in the comments section at the bottom of this post.
What are the funniest, weirdest, and super-specific recession indicators that you keep an eye out for? How have you changed your spending habits in recent years? How are current events affecting your day-to-day budgeting and shopping?
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I remember my Mom teaching her friends what to look for in thrift stores and on eBay back in 2008, now my friends are asking me to do the same for them but it's not worth the hassle anymore. I taught them to thrift things of quality that they can keep instead.
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